The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration has said that in the next few days it will stop providing data from satellites that have been helping hurricane forecasters do their jobs for decades, citing “recent service changes” as the cause.
The satellites are jointly operated by NOAA and the Department of Defense as part of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program. They are old, dating to the early 2000s, but they have reliably helped improve hurricane forecasting for decades. The data will be halted by Monday, June 30, the agency said, without giving further explanation.
“This is an incredibly big hit for hurricane forecasts, and for the tens of millions of Americans who live in hurricane-prone areas,” said Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist in South Florida who has worked at the National Hurricane Center and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
The satellites orbit the poles and use microwave radiation to peer inside a hurricane to reveal changes in a storm’s structure. This information is critical for accurately predicting the path of storms and detecting hurricane intensification, particularly at night.
The satellites are not being decommissioned, but their data will no longer be received, processed or stored. Satellites can’t last forever and are eventually retired, but it is not clear that is the case here, said Andy Hazelton, a hurricane modeling expert at the University of Miami. “We don’t want to have less data for no reason,” he said.
NOAA did not respond to a request for comment.
Forecasters rely on various satellite-based tools to monitor tropical cyclones and hurricanes and predict their behavior. Observations of cloud tops and precipitation bands help forecasters see how a storm is moving and spreading. Come nightfall, microwave observation satellites work like forecasters’ night-vision goggles.
Nighttime observations of storm structure are particularly important because hurricanes tend to intensify, or see increases in wind speed and category, overnight as warm waters leach energy into the atmosphere.
“The nightmare scenario is going to bed with a tropical storm and waking up to a hurricane,” Mr. Lowry said. The canceled satellite data streams help avoid that unwelcome “sunrise surprise.”
Microwave observations also let forecasters pinpoint the center of a hurricane, which is essential for accurately predicting a storm’s direction. Being off even by a few miles can have “huge ramifications” for that, Mr. Lowry said.
A handful of other satellites with microwave observation capabilities will still have their data available to forecasters or researchers who have used that information. But the satellites provide only thin bands of coverage. There’s no guarantee the remaining ones will be able to provide data for a storm, and there’s not an obvious replacement for the data that will no longer be available.
“We’re going to lose about half the microwave images,” said James Franklin, a retired meteorologist who was the previous head of the hurricane team at the National Hurricane Center. With fewer satellite passes over a given part of the ocean, “forecasters will see hourslong delays in the National Hurricane Center recognizing that a storm has begun to strengthen abruptly.”
This is of particular concern because in the past two decades, hurricanes have been intensifying more rapidly and more frequently as a result of climate change. Microwave observations of storm structures are not “optional,” said Andra Garner, a climate scientist at Rowan University in New Jersey. “They’re critical.”
Identifying intensification as early is possible saves lives. Individuals need to prepare their homes, communities need to evacuate and emergency managers need to muster teams and resources.
The loss of data will affect hurricane research, too. Microwave observations of hurricanes, which have been collected by this family of satellites since 1987, built up a decades-long record of three-dimensional data on storm tracks, shapes and behaviors. “Our understanding of hurricanes is greatly improved because of that,” Mr. Lowry said. Without the data, “that eliminates the potential for research that could keep improving our forecasting.”
The data from the satellites was also used by international weather and maritime communities. Mexico and countries in the Caribbean use U.S. storm forecasts both for coastal and open-ocean areas. When hurricane and tropical storm forecasts are subpar, ships can be lost at sea, Dr. Franklin said.
The loss of the satellite data is the latest in a string of staffing, funding and data cuts since the Trump Administration took office in January. Hundreds of employees have left the National Weather Service since the beginning of the year, forcing some local offices to shutter their doors at night.
Judson Jones contributed reporting
