Japan’s ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, is expected to lose its majority in the upper house of Parliament after Sunday’s election, according to exit polls. The coalition also lost control of the lower house in October, putting Ishiba’s government under even more pressure.
Exit polls suggest that Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito will secure only 32 to 51 of the 124 contested seats in the 248-seat chamber. They needed at least 50 seats to maintain their grip on power. If they fall below 46, it would be their worst performance since the coalition was formed in 1999.
“I solemnly accept this harsh result,” Ishiba, 68, told NHK shortly after the polls closed. When asked if he planned to continue as prime minister, he responded, “That’s right.”
He later told TV Tokyo, “We are engaged in extremely critical tariff negotiations with the United States We must never ruin these negotiations. It is only natural to devote our complete dedication and energy to realising our national interests.”
Japan faces an August 1 deadline to reach a trade agreement with the US, or else it will face high tariffs on its exports — a major concern for the world’s fourth-largest economy.
OPPOSITION GAINS AND VOTERS’ FRUSTRATION
Exit polls indicate the main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party, will win between 18 and 30 seats, improving its position slightly from the 22 it held before the election. However, the biggest surprise has been the far-right Sanseito party, which may win up to 15 seats. Sanseito was formed just a few years ago and is known for its “Japanese first” campaign and opposition to foreign influence.
Yu Nagai, a 25-year-old student in Tokyo, said he voted for Sanseito because he felt Japanese citizens were being neglected. “I am attending graduate school but there are no Japanese around me. All of them are foreigners,” he said. “When I look at the way compensation and money are spent on foreigners, I think that Japanese people are a bit disrespected.”
Sanseito first came in focus during the COVID-19 pandemic by promoting vaccine conspiracy theories. It has since drawn comparisons with far-right parties like Germany’s AfD and the UK’s Reform Party.
Many voters are frustrated with consumer prices, especially the increased cost of essentials like rice. Opposition parties have campaigned on reducing taxes and boosting welfare, tapping into public dissatisfaction.
“The LDP was largely playing defence in this election, being on the wrong side of a key voter issue,” said David Boling, a director at Eurasia Group. “Polls show that most households want a cut to the consumption tax to address inflation, something that the LDP opposes. Opposition parties seized on it and hammered that message home.”
Meanwhile, the LDP has been pushing for fiscal restraint, worrying about the nation’s ability to manage its massive public debt — the largest in the world.
CHALLENGE FOR ISHIBA’S LEADERSHIP
The back-to-back losses in the lower and upper houses have weakened Prime Minister Ishiba’s grip on power. His position is now more vulnerable to no-confidence motions, and even members of his own party are quietly calling for leadership change.
Japan currently has a record 3.8 million foreign-born residents — just 3% of its total population, but their growing visibility has become a key political issue, especially with the boom in tourism.
Although the upper house does not determine the government’s survival, the outcome of the election will likely shape the direction of Japan’s economy in the coming months.
– Ends
With inputs from Reuters
